Chatelain: Panel's numbers key for mid-majors

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Mid-major respect (or lack of) is one of the annual story lines of Selection Sunday.

Typically, we measure respect by at-large bids. How many invitations did the selection committee allocate to leagues like the Missouri Valley versus the so-called power conferences?

This year is different. At-large bids won't be the barometer for respect. Seeding will be.

The mid-major crop in 2012 isn't deep, but it is strong.

Creighton, Murray State, UNLV, San Diego State and St. Mary's all are ranked in the Top 25. All will enter March with fancy records and big expectations. Forget the Sweet 16, these teams have a shot — with a few breaks — to reach the Final Four.

Favorable seeding would help. That's where things get hazy.

In 2011, only two teams from outside the power six conferences — San Diego State and BYU — received a top-five seed in the NCAA tournament. In 2010, only New Mexico landed a top-four seed.

The standard for mid-majors is high, as Creighton knows. In 2003, the Bluejays were ranked 17th in the country going into the NCAA tournament. They were 29-4 — and received only a six seed.

It's easy for the selection committee to compare Indiana to Florida State, for example, and decide who had the better season. It's much harder to judge Indiana against Murray State.

The Hoosiers count wins over Kentucky and Ohio State. But they're 5-5 in Big Ten play, including losses against Minnesota and Nebraska.

How do you measure that profile against Murray State, the nation's only undefeated team? The Racers, like St. Mary's, haven't beaten a power-conference team all season.

Creighton is a more proven commodity, but not by much. The Bluejays beat three Big Ten teams — Nebraska, Iowa and Northwestern — but they're all bottom feeders.

This is the crux of the seeding dilemma.

How good are teams like Creighton, Murray State and St. Mary's? Do they deserve a No. 3 seed and a favorable path to the Sweet 16. Or do they belong with the 6s and 7s, where they'll need to pull an upset to advance to the second week?

It's the equivalent of the Boise State conundrum in college football. And with a greater number of excellent mid-major teams this year, the selection committee's mid-major judgment is more important than ever.

Eight elite thoughts on the bracket:

1. Who will get sent to Omaha? According to recent history, Missouri and Kansas will likely headline the first weekend at the CenturyLink Center.

The site-assignment process goes like this: The selection committee takes the No. 1 seeds and finds the opening-round site closest to their campus.

For instance, Kentucky and Ohio State would both likely go to Louisville. Syracuse would likely go to Pittsburgh. Duke would go to Greensboro.

Almost without exception, the committee goes through the same exercise with the No. 2s, then the No. 3s, then the No. 4s. Every site will have two top-4 seeds.

Omaha is the closest site for Missouri and Kansas. Look at all the other heavyweights on the board. Nobody else ranks Omaha as the closest site.

As long as Mizzou and KU stay on their current pace, they'll be mingling — or bickering — in the Old Market.

2. Creighton can't play at home in the NCAA tournament. And geography dictates site assignments. So if the Jays are a top-4 seed, there's a good chance they'll end up in Albuquerque or Portland.

There are very few elite teams west of Omaha. Albuquerque and Portland are the only opening-round sites west of Omaha. That means the committee would likely send Creighton in that direction.

That's good news for Omahans hoping to watch the Jays and still see games at CenturyLink Center. Portland and Albuquerque are Thursday-Saturday sites. Omaha is a Friday-Sunday site.

3. If the Jays drop a few games down the stretch, all bets are off. Geography is rarely a factor in assigning teams outside the top-four seeds.

That's why it's impossible to predict whether Omaha would get another team (beyond Mizzou and KU) from the Midwest.

4. Ohio State may be the Big Ten's only legitimate national title contender. But with 37 at-large bids available, the conference is looking at seven or eight teams in the NCAAs.

Just out of curiosity, what record would Nebraska need to break its 13-year NCAA drought? A 9-9 finish in the Big Ten would put the Huskers in the conversation — that's 6-3 the rest of the way.

5. Connecticut's free fall continues. The defending national champs, who began the season ranked No. 4 in both polls, have dropped five of seven games. With Pittsburgh struggling, the Big East is weaker than it's been in years.

6. But not weaker than the Pac-12. Good grief, what an awful league. According to Sports Illustrated last week, the Pac-12 was 1-23 in nonconference play against the RPI top 50 and 8-41 against the top 100. Dana Altman and Oregon could've tied for the conference lead (7-2) Sunday, but they lost at home to Oregon State.

7. I mentioned the five mid-majors in the Top 25. Wichita State was on the cusp of that group until it lost in triple overtime Saturday night at Drake. The Shockers are still safe inside the at-large pool, but barring upsets in St. Louis, the Valley will only get two NCAA bids.

8. Drake didn't score the best win in Iowa on Saturday. That honor belongs to the Cyclones after upsetting Kansas at Hilton Coliseum. Iowa State is 5-3 in league play. If Fred Hoiberg can stay above .500, he'll likely take his alma mater to the Dance for the first time since 2005.

Who's Hot: Notre Dame. Road wins at Seton Hall and Connecticut, coupled with an upset of Syracuse last week, have the Irish back in the thick of the NCAA picture.

Who's Not: Illinois. The Illini losing streak is three after a crushing overtime defeat at Minnesota. It doesn't get any easier. Next up is Michigan State.

Contact the writer:

402-649-1461, dirk.chatelain@owh.com

twitter.com/dirkchatelain

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